10 The View from 1966
The analysis states that during the 1960s, the situation for poor and disadvantaged groups, especially Black Americans, got worse in ways that were not expected, even with new civil rights laws and social programs. The worsening conditions were more serious than what most people thought would happen given the social and economic environment.
In a made-up scenario from 1959, a policy analyst discusses the progress of Black Americans. The analyst is worried about the large gaps that still exist between Black and white people in terms of economic and social well-being. When asked about possible future improvements, the analyst finds it hard to believe that all the proposed civil rights changes would lead to real progress. Another panelist predicts that more young Black people will drop out of the labor force and face higher crime rates, which the analyst finds hard to believe could happen alongside expected progress.
In 1966, another analysis takes place in the Johnson administration to project what Black Americans' situation would be by 1980. The analyst looks at both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on past years. The optimistic view assumes that programs and laws will help bring about positive changes, while the pessimistic view is based on earlier years that were not as good for Black people. When projecting future progress, the analyst chooses specific indicators to assess two groups: the poorest Black Americans and those already part of the economic mainstream.
For the poorest group, the analysis focuses on issues like crime and family structure. For those who are doing better economically, it examines job opportunities, income levels compared to white workers, and school enrollment rates.
When comparing actual results from 1980 to the projections, there are significant differences. The poorest Black Americans faced serious problems, such as high crime rates and growing numbers of children born outside of marriage, which did not improve as expected. In contrast, middle-class Black Americans experienced more success, with increases in white-collar jobs and higher rates of young adults attending school, often exceeding original projections.
This difference in outcomes raises questions about why these two groups experienced such different trends. While middle-class Black Americans made real gains, those who were more disadvantaged encountered unexpected setbacks, showing how complex it can be to predict social changes and understand the larger factors at work during that time period.
The analysis states that during the 1960s, the situation for poor and disadvantaged groups, especially Black Americans, got worse in ways that were not expected, even with new civil rights laws and social programs. The worsening conditions were more serious than what most people thought would happen given the social and economic environment.
In a made-up scenario from 1959, a policy analyst discusses the progress of Black Americans. The analyst is worried about the large gaps that still exist between Black and white people in terms of economic and social well-being. When asked about possible future improvements, the analyst finds it hard to believe that all the proposed civil rights changes would lead to real progress. Another panelist predicts that more young Black people will drop out of the labor force and face higher crime rates, which the analyst finds hard to believe could happen alongside expected progress.
In 1966, another analysis takes place in the Johnson administration to project what Black Americans' situation would be by 1980. The analyst looks at both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on past years. The optimistic view assumes that programs and laws will help bring about positive changes, while the pessimistic view is based on earlier years that were not as good for Black people. When projecting future progress, the analyst chooses specific indicators to assess two groups: the poorest Black Americans and those already part of the economic mainstream.
For the poorest group, the analysis focuses on issues like crime and family structure. For those who are doing better economically, it examines job opportunities, income levels compared to white workers, and school enrollment rates.
When comparing actual results from 1980 to the projections, there are significant differences. The poorest Black Americans faced serious problems, such as high crime rates and growing numbers of children born outside of marriage, which did not improve as expected. In contrast, middle-class Black Americans experienced more success, with increases in white-collar jobs and higher rates of young adults attending school, often exceeding original projections.
This difference in outcomes raises questions about why these two groups experienced such different trends. While middle-class Black Americans made real gains, those who were more disadvantaged encountered unexpected setbacks, showing how complex it can be to predict social changes and understand the larger factors at work during that time period.