SIXTEEN: EXPLANATIONS II: MODELS, ELITE CITIES, AND FREEDOM OF ACTION
Models
Accomplishments in the arts and sciences often build on what previous people have done, creating a cycle where new artists and scientists are inspired by earlier figures. Famous individuals like Raphael and Faraday serve as role models, encouraging younger generations to pursue their own achievements. This idea suggests that success in one area can help success in others. Historically, thinkers like Velleius Paterculus discussed how great minds often appear in the same time period and noted that genius grows through imitation. He pointed out that when people feel they can't surpass the leaders in their field, their motivation may decrease, leading them to explore new areas. Later researchers like Alfred Kroeber and Dean Simonton studied patterns of creativity and found that the achievements of past generations strongly influence the creativity of the present, showing that role models inspire new ideas and progress across different fields.
Critical Mass: Elite Cities
Cities are important for creating significant achievements in the arts and sciences. They are not just places where talented people work; they are also where many of these individuals are born and raised. It may seem obvious that artists and scientists are more likely to be found in cities because those are the places with more resources and audiences, but the connection is more complicated. When looking at historical data from European cities between 1800 and 1950, it's clear that larger cities produce a higher number of notable figures compared to their surrounding areas.
However, not all big cities nurture talent equally. For example, while cities like London and Paris consistently helped create many successful individuals, others, such as Naples and Madrid, failed to do so, even though they were large. This indicates that size alone doesn't determine a city's success in producing accomplished people. The history shows that political and cultural situations, like when Naples was controlled by a foreign power during the Renaissance, can limit a city’s potential.
Cities that succeed in nurturing talent share certain characteristics that encourage creativity. They tend to attract ambitious people who want to succeed. Urban areas usually offer better education and cultural resources than rural areas. Children who grow up in cities often experience a rich and diverse cultural environment that helps them develop their talents. When cities have large audiences for performances and art exhibitions, this not only attracts artists and musicians but also creates a cycle where their presence encourages even more talent to emerge.
Additionally, cities with strong educational institutions and research facilities also play a big role in producing significant figures in science. This connection between cities, culture, education, and the creation of significant figures highlights the importance of elements like size, cultural richness, political influence, and educational opportunities in developing talent. Evidence shows that cities like London, Paris, Florence, Vienna, and Berlin have been crucial in fostering human accomplishments throughout history.
Freedom of Action
Freedom of action is important for achieving success in the arts and sciences. This idea is different from political freedom, which is about having rights and living in a democracy. Many achievements happened in times when political freedoms were limited, including during wars and under autocratic rule. Though liberal democracy might create better conditions for success, it has only been common for a short time in history.
There have been different types of republics in the world. Some allowed freedom, while others were strict and controlling. Totalitarian states, like those in the 20th century, often stifle creativity and thought in the arts and philosophy. They may allow some scientific achievements to happen because of their focus on military and industrial strength, but overall, they limit freedom. For example, in the Soviet Union, many artists and writers who became well-known did so before the revolution, and few succeeded afterward.
In contrast, freedom of action often existed in some monarchies and autocracies. In these systems, artists and scholars sometimes had the freedom to express their thoughts. A famous playwright, Molière, managed to critique powerful people despite living under a strict government.
Regions with harsh ruling systems, such as Russia or the Balkans under the Ottoman Empire, produced fewer significant cultural achievements due to the lack of freedom. Spain also struggled in the arts and sciences after the Inquisition limited freedom, even though it had a strong economy and a large population. Overall, countries with histories of strict ruling show lower levels of achievement compared to those with parliamentary monarchies and liberal democracies that allow more freedom of action.
The Regression Analyses: Models
The study looks at whether past achievements in fields like art, science, and literature help inspire new accomplishments. It uses lagged variables to see if achievements from earlier generations affect the number of significant figures in the current generation, showing that earlier successes have a strong impact, but this effect gets weaker over time. The study also checks if achievements in one area benefit from progress in other fields. It finds strong connections in visual arts, some in music and science, but no effect in literature. Overall, the research shows that work in one area can influence work in others, and past successes help shape what comes next.
The Regression Analyses: Elite Cities
The analysis looked at how certain traits of cities affect the number of important people, called significant figures, from 1400 to 1950 in Europe and the United States. It focused on 110 cities based on five main traits: 1) Industrial cities often did not produce significant figures unless they had other advantages. 2) Entrepôt cities, mainly port cities that were trading hubs, encouraged the creation of significant figures because they were places where ideas and goods were exchanged. 3) Political and financial centers, which attracted educated and wealthy people, increased the number of significant figures by 64 percent. 4) Cities with elite universities—known for their high quality of education—increased that number by 184 percent. 5) Non-elite universities had little effect on producing significant figures. Interestingly, industrial cities were linked to important figures in scientific fields due to their focus on technology. Overall, being a political or financial center and having an elite university were key to producing significant figures in cities.
The Regression Analyses: Freedom of Action
The analysis looks at how different political systems affect freedom of action and the achievements of countries. It starts by saying that traditional ways of classifying governments, like absolute monarchy and liberal democracy, don't really help explain where accomplishments happen. Instead, it creates a new way to categorize governments based on the level of freedom of action they offer.
There are four new categories. The first category is liberal democracies, which have the most freedom. The second includes parliamentary monarchies and some republics that allow some freedom. The third is for tolerant autocracies, which have a degree of control but are not overly repressive. The fourth category consists of despotic governments, known for being very controlling and limiting personal freedoms.
The results show that there is no clear pattern in how these political systems perform. Even liberal democracies and totalitarian states score poorly in producing significant accomplishments compared to absolute monarchies. The analysis also finds that despotic governments do not have as much of a negative effect on achievements as expected, since the results account for differences between countries.
There is some uncertainty about whether the low achievements in despotic countries come from the governments themselves or from cultural factors. Overall, the findings suggest that both liberal democracies and parliamentary monarchies help produce better results, but the link between political systems and achievements is complicated and influenced by many factors over time.
Epilogue: The Full Model
The regression analyses aimed to explore what factors influence accomplishments in the arts and sciences. Two models were used: the random-effects model, which assumes countries are different in ways not related to the factors studied, and the fixed-effects model, which considers the unique traits of each country. Although both models looked at the same data, they gave different results when many variables were combined. For instance, the random-effects model showed that GDP is important, while the fixed-effects model did not. It was also found that war has a positive effect on accomplishments, which contradicts earlier conclusions. Different analysts might see these results differently, but the significant effects from previous analyses are important for understanding human achievements.
Models
Accomplishments in the arts and sciences often build on what previous people have done, creating a cycle where new artists and scientists are inspired by earlier figures. Famous individuals like Raphael and Faraday serve as role models, encouraging younger generations to pursue their own achievements. This idea suggests that success in one area can help success in others. Historically, thinkers like Velleius Paterculus discussed how great minds often appear in the same time period and noted that genius grows through imitation. He pointed out that when people feel they can't surpass the leaders in their field, their motivation may decrease, leading them to explore new areas. Later researchers like Alfred Kroeber and Dean Simonton studied patterns of creativity and found that the achievements of past generations strongly influence the creativity of the present, showing that role models inspire new ideas and progress across different fields.
Critical Mass: Elite Cities
Cities are important for creating significant achievements in the arts and sciences. They are not just places where talented people work; they are also where many of these individuals are born and raised. It may seem obvious that artists and scientists are more likely to be found in cities because those are the places with more resources and audiences, but the connection is more complicated. When looking at historical data from European cities between 1800 and 1950, it's clear that larger cities produce a higher number of notable figures compared to their surrounding areas.
However, not all big cities nurture talent equally. For example, while cities like London and Paris consistently helped create many successful individuals, others, such as Naples and Madrid, failed to do so, even though they were large. This indicates that size alone doesn't determine a city's success in producing accomplished people. The history shows that political and cultural situations, like when Naples was controlled by a foreign power during the Renaissance, can limit a city’s potential.
Cities that succeed in nurturing talent share certain characteristics that encourage creativity. They tend to attract ambitious people who want to succeed. Urban areas usually offer better education and cultural resources than rural areas. Children who grow up in cities often experience a rich and diverse cultural environment that helps them develop their talents. When cities have large audiences for performances and art exhibitions, this not only attracts artists and musicians but also creates a cycle where their presence encourages even more talent to emerge.
Additionally, cities with strong educational institutions and research facilities also play a big role in producing significant figures in science. This connection between cities, culture, education, and the creation of significant figures highlights the importance of elements like size, cultural richness, political influence, and educational opportunities in developing talent. Evidence shows that cities like London, Paris, Florence, Vienna, and Berlin have been crucial in fostering human accomplishments throughout history.
Freedom of Action
Freedom of action is important for achieving success in the arts and sciences. This idea is different from political freedom, which is about having rights and living in a democracy. Many achievements happened in times when political freedoms were limited, including during wars and under autocratic rule. Though liberal democracy might create better conditions for success, it has only been common for a short time in history.
There have been different types of republics in the world. Some allowed freedom, while others were strict and controlling. Totalitarian states, like those in the 20th century, often stifle creativity and thought in the arts and philosophy. They may allow some scientific achievements to happen because of their focus on military and industrial strength, but overall, they limit freedom. For example, in the Soviet Union, many artists and writers who became well-known did so before the revolution, and few succeeded afterward.
In contrast, freedom of action often existed in some monarchies and autocracies. In these systems, artists and scholars sometimes had the freedom to express their thoughts. A famous playwright, Molière, managed to critique powerful people despite living under a strict government.
Regions with harsh ruling systems, such as Russia or the Balkans under the Ottoman Empire, produced fewer significant cultural achievements due to the lack of freedom. Spain also struggled in the arts and sciences after the Inquisition limited freedom, even though it had a strong economy and a large population. Overall, countries with histories of strict ruling show lower levels of achievement compared to those with parliamentary monarchies and liberal democracies that allow more freedom of action.
The Regression Analyses: Models
The study looks at whether past achievements in fields like art, science, and literature help inspire new accomplishments. It uses lagged variables to see if achievements from earlier generations affect the number of significant figures in the current generation, showing that earlier successes have a strong impact, but this effect gets weaker over time. The study also checks if achievements in one area benefit from progress in other fields. It finds strong connections in visual arts, some in music and science, but no effect in literature. Overall, the research shows that work in one area can influence work in others, and past successes help shape what comes next.
The Regression Analyses: Elite Cities
The analysis looked at how certain traits of cities affect the number of important people, called significant figures, from 1400 to 1950 in Europe and the United States. It focused on 110 cities based on five main traits: 1) Industrial cities often did not produce significant figures unless they had other advantages. 2) Entrepôt cities, mainly port cities that were trading hubs, encouraged the creation of significant figures because they were places where ideas and goods were exchanged. 3) Political and financial centers, which attracted educated and wealthy people, increased the number of significant figures by 64 percent. 4) Cities with elite universities—known for their high quality of education—increased that number by 184 percent. 5) Non-elite universities had little effect on producing significant figures. Interestingly, industrial cities were linked to important figures in scientific fields due to their focus on technology. Overall, being a political or financial center and having an elite university were key to producing significant figures in cities.
The Regression Analyses: Freedom of Action
The analysis looks at how different political systems affect freedom of action and the achievements of countries. It starts by saying that traditional ways of classifying governments, like absolute monarchy and liberal democracy, don't really help explain where accomplishments happen. Instead, it creates a new way to categorize governments based on the level of freedom of action they offer.
There are four new categories. The first category is liberal democracies, which have the most freedom. The second includes parliamentary monarchies and some republics that allow some freedom. The third is for tolerant autocracies, which have a degree of control but are not overly repressive. The fourth category consists of despotic governments, known for being very controlling and limiting personal freedoms.
The results show that there is no clear pattern in how these political systems perform. Even liberal democracies and totalitarian states score poorly in producing significant accomplishments compared to absolute monarchies. The analysis also finds that despotic governments do not have as much of a negative effect on achievements as expected, since the results account for differences between countries.
There is some uncertainty about whether the low achievements in despotic countries come from the governments themselves or from cultural factors. Overall, the findings suggest that both liberal democracies and parliamentary monarchies help produce better results, but the link between political systems and achievements is complicated and influenced by many factors over time.
Epilogue: The Full Model
The regression analyses aimed to explore what factors influence accomplishments in the arts and sciences. Two models were used: the random-effects model, which assumes countries are different in ways not related to the factors studied, and the fixed-effects model, which considers the unique traits of each country. Although both models looked at the same data, they gave different results when many variables were combined. For instance, the random-effects model showed that GDP is important, while the fixed-effects model did not. It was also found that war has a positive effect on accomplishments, which contradicts earlier conclusions. Different analysts might see these results differently, but the significant effects from previous analyses are important for understanding human achievements.