FOURTEEN: TAKING POPULATION INTO ACCOUNT: THE ACCOMPLISHMENT RATE
The Global Non-Relationship of Population to Accomplishment
The relationship between population size and achievements in arts and sciences is strong only in Europe and the United States. Globally, outside these areas, there is almost no connection. The strong correlation seen in specific instances, like since 1400, is mostly due to accomplishments emerging alongside population growth in these regions. However, looking at a single point in time, like 1900, shows a weak correlation, indicating that large populations do not guarantee significant contributions to culture or knowledge.
Measuring the Rate of Accomplishment
Population can be analyzed in two primary ways: by using it as a variable in a regression equation or by calculating it as a ratio. Common examples of these ratios include crime rates and birth rates. The unweighted accomplishment rate measures significant figures per 10 million people, while a weighted accomplishment rate uses index scores for a more nuanced measure. For instance, in 1850-1870, France had an unweighted rate of 15.1 and a weighted rate of 195.2. Additionally, counting significant events per population provides further insights. Standard scores are used to compare these rates over time, indicating how they relate to one another within a distribution.
The Scientific and Western Inventories
The accomplishments in various fields such as hard sciences, mathematics, medicine, technology, philosophy, literature, and music from 1400 to 1950 show significant trends. In hard sciences, notable discoveries peaked around 1610 and 1680 due to figures like Galileo and Newton. The most productive period was from the late 18th to early 19th century, where the number of significant contributions rose sharply from 57 to 220. However, after the early 1800s, there was a decline in significant scientific events, indicating a shift towards teamwork in scientific exploration.
Mathematics experienced its golden age in the late 1500s to the end of the 1600s, with contributions from mathematicians such as Pascal and Newton. Although there was a brief revival in the early 1800s led by Gauss, overall progress in mathematics slowed considerably afterward.
In medicine, the trend showed consistent growth from 1600 onwards, with a notable increase attributed to figures like Vesalius and Paracelsus, who opened new lines of inquiry. The technology sector began to flourish around the mid-1600s and continued into the late 1800s, resulting in significant advancements that transformed various industries.
Philosophy saw bursts of productivity during the classical era and again in the 17th and 18th centuries, marked by influential thinkers like Descartes, Kant, and Rousseau, which defined the Enlightenment period. The arts thrived during the Renaissance and later in the Low Countries with notable artists like Rembrandt. Literature displayed a continuous upward trend, particularly emphasized by key figures from the late 1500s through the 1800s, including writers like Dickens and Tolstoy.
Music showed strong developments in the 16th and 17th centuries, yet the most significant composers emerged during the 18th century, with legacies from figures such as Mozart and Beethoven shaping the musical landscape. Overall, these fields experienced periods of remarkable growth and achievement, along with fluctuations in productivity over time.
The Non-European Inventories
The non-European inventories showcase important cultural works from areas outside Europe, focusing on their unique development. These inventories have fewer significant figures compared to Western ones, which can make the data appear exaggerated, especially for smaller categories like Indian literature and philosophy. The time periods these inventories cover are also longer than those for Western arts.
In Arabic literature, early important writers include Imru’ al-Qays, who was a major poet before Islam. The early Islamic period had notable poets like al-Farazdaq, Jarir, and al-Akhtal. The height of Arabic literature occurred between the 10th and 11th centuries, with major figures such as al-Mutanabbi at the leading edge.
Chinese painting and literature have significant historical peaks. The Tang Dynasty, which lasted from 618 to 907, was a great time for both art and poetry. Prominent poets like Du Fu and Li Bo made their mark during this period. The Song Dynasty, from 960 to 1279, is recognized as a high point in Chinese culture, with notable artistic achievements, although the levels of accomplishment seem to decline in later periods.
India has a rich but complex literary tradition with many languages and anonymous authors. The important epic poems, the Ramayana and Mahabharata, are from around the 5th and 6th centuries. Indian philosophy started with thinkers like Confucius and Laozi, reaching significant development from the 6th to 8th centuries, especially with Sankara.
Japanese literature and art grew steadily, with important figures appearing around the 11th century. Major poetry collections like the Man’yoshu and Kokinshu were produced, and by the late 19th century, Japanese literature experienced a revival, leading to new and important writers. Overall, the non-European traditions highlight a rich variety of achievements in literature and art.
Postscript
The graphs reveal two main ideas. First, the accomplishment rate varies greatly over time, often showing significant drops from previous highs, which raises questions about the reasons behind these changes. Second, when accounting for population, the apparent increase in Western accomplishments is not supported; instead, it indicates a decline in the accomplishment rate before 1950. The validity of this data and its implications will be discussed further in a later chapter.
The Global Non-Relationship of Population to Accomplishment
The relationship between population size and achievements in arts and sciences is strong only in Europe and the United States. Globally, outside these areas, there is almost no connection. The strong correlation seen in specific instances, like since 1400, is mostly due to accomplishments emerging alongside population growth in these regions. However, looking at a single point in time, like 1900, shows a weak correlation, indicating that large populations do not guarantee significant contributions to culture or knowledge.
Measuring the Rate of Accomplishment
Population can be analyzed in two primary ways: by using it as a variable in a regression equation or by calculating it as a ratio. Common examples of these ratios include crime rates and birth rates. The unweighted accomplishment rate measures significant figures per 10 million people, while a weighted accomplishment rate uses index scores for a more nuanced measure. For instance, in 1850-1870, France had an unweighted rate of 15.1 and a weighted rate of 195.2. Additionally, counting significant events per population provides further insights. Standard scores are used to compare these rates over time, indicating how they relate to one another within a distribution.
The Scientific and Western Inventories
The accomplishments in various fields such as hard sciences, mathematics, medicine, technology, philosophy, literature, and music from 1400 to 1950 show significant trends. In hard sciences, notable discoveries peaked around 1610 and 1680 due to figures like Galileo and Newton. The most productive period was from the late 18th to early 19th century, where the number of significant contributions rose sharply from 57 to 220. However, after the early 1800s, there was a decline in significant scientific events, indicating a shift towards teamwork in scientific exploration.
Mathematics experienced its golden age in the late 1500s to the end of the 1600s, with contributions from mathematicians such as Pascal and Newton. Although there was a brief revival in the early 1800s led by Gauss, overall progress in mathematics slowed considerably afterward.
In medicine, the trend showed consistent growth from 1600 onwards, with a notable increase attributed to figures like Vesalius and Paracelsus, who opened new lines of inquiry. The technology sector began to flourish around the mid-1600s and continued into the late 1800s, resulting in significant advancements that transformed various industries.
Philosophy saw bursts of productivity during the classical era and again in the 17th and 18th centuries, marked by influential thinkers like Descartes, Kant, and Rousseau, which defined the Enlightenment period. The arts thrived during the Renaissance and later in the Low Countries with notable artists like Rembrandt. Literature displayed a continuous upward trend, particularly emphasized by key figures from the late 1500s through the 1800s, including writers like Dickens and Tolstoy.
Music showed strong developments in the 16th and 17th centuries, yet the most significant composers emerged during the 18th century, with legacies from figures such as Mozart and Beethoven shaping the musical landscape. Overall, these fields experienced periods of remarkable growth and achievement, along with fluctuations in productivity over time.
The Non-European Inventories
The non-European inventories showcase important cultural works from areas outside Europe, focusing on their unique development. These inventories have fewer significant figures compared to Western ones, which can make the data appear exaggerated, especially for smaller categories like Indian literature and philosophy. The time periods these inventories cover are also longer than those for Western arts.
In Arabic literature, early important writers include Imru’ al-Qays, who was a major poet before Islam. The early Islamic period had notable poets like al-Farazdaq, Jarir, and al-Akhtal. The height of Arabic literature occurred between the 10th and 11th centuries, with major figures such as al-Mutanabbi at the leading edge.
Chinese painting and literature have significant historical peaks. The Tang Dynasty, which lasted from 618 to 907, was a great time for both art and poetry. Prominent poets like Du Fu and Li Bo made their mark during this period. The Song Dynasty, from 960 to 1279, is recognized as a high point in Chinese culture, with notable artistic achievements, although the levels of accomplishment seem to decline in later periods.
India has a rich but complex literary tradition with many languages and anonymous authors. The important epic poems, the Ramayana and Mahabharata, are from around the 5th and 6th centuries. Indian philosophy started with thinkers like Confucius and Laozi, reaching significant development from the 6th to 8th centuries, especially with Sankara.
Japanese literature and art grew steadily, with important figures appearing around the 11th century. Major poetry collections like the Man’yoshu and Kokinshu were produced, and by the late 19th century, Japanese literature experienced a revival, leading to new and important writers. Overall, the non-European traditions highlight a rich variety of achievements in literature and art.
Postscript
The graphs reveal two main ideas. First, the accomplishment rate varies greatly over time, often showing significant drops from previous highs, which raises questions about the reasons behind these changes. Second, when accounting for population, the apparent increase in Western accomplishments is not supported; instead, it indicates a decline in the accomplishment rate before 1950. The validity of this data and its implications will be discussed further in a later chapter.